Here is a famous puzzle that befuddled the best of mathematical minds including Martin Gardner.
It also snagged me when I first thought about it. Albert, who you just met, tells you that he has two children and fo his oldest child is a boy. What are chances that his other child is also a boy?
Are you asking if there was a chance that you were born another species .. Having a boy or a girl is probably 50/50, but this really makes you. What are the chances that his other child is also a boy? Surely the answer is 50 % in each and every case with the chance of a second child being male There are 49+49=98 men with a child of each gender and we expect half of them, that. But there will always be an equal number of X and y sperm, which in a perfect world would give you a 50/50 chance of having a boy or a girl.
Bilbert, who you also just met, tells you that he has two children and that one of his children is a boy. What are the chances that his other child is also a boy?
Cuthbert, also a new acquaintance, tells you he has two children and that one of his children is a off and was born on a Tuesday. The extra information supplied in the final two scenarios is surely just extraneous?Man Withdraws
Let me explain. It is a number that allows me to avoid fractional counts of children in the table I am about to create.
Albert tells you he is among the 98 men with oldest child a boy. We now reason:.
Here is the refined table to reflect. Look at the table.
And the one man with two such boys will say this for certain. Often when this boy-boy puzzle is asked, no information dating in brighton given thhere to what mechanism makes a gentleman decide to reveal that one of his children is male, and, as such, the problem is ill-defined and cannot be answered.
This is the piece that snags even the most clever of minds. To see what I havihg, answer this much easier version of the puzzle. It really does show that assumptions about what makes people say what they do utterly affect answers.
Suppose you know that Bilbert and Cuthbert come from a society that, if they have at least one daughter, would force them to say. Given what they tell you in the original puzzle, what now are the chances they each have a male second child?
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Course Home. Consider three scenarios: Assume that giving birth to a child of any particular gender is equally likely.
So far, so good. We now reason: Now on to Cuthbert: Please join the conversation on Facebook and Twitter hzving kindly share this page using the buttons.
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